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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Aravawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
60%

Team Arava

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Zayac · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Max · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 193 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 453 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 456 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
267 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 416 bans
55%
Morphling
Morphling
253 picks · 472 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
244 picks · 419 bans
51%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
228 picks · 554 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
Keyd Stars 59%Team Arava 41%
The model gave 59% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Team Arava in 51:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCostabile
55% · 28 games51% · 93 games
Earth SpiritAskold
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFCR
56% · 43 games49% · 165 games
Dark SeerBlizzy
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
55% · 57 games44% · 111 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickKingrd
46% · 214 games51% · 67 games
Vengeful SpiritMax
Vengeful Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
48% · 94 games
Game 2prediction missed28:33
Keyd Stars 59%Team Arava 41%
The model gave 59% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Team Arava in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCostabile
62% · 80 games32% · 56 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
57% · 95 games52% · 89 games
Primal BeastBlizzy
Primal Beast
Lone Druid
Lone DruidFCR
50% · 22 games58% · 88 games
Nature's ProphetMax
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKingrd
44% · 59 games43% · 54 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockKJ
44% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 67%
Series resultTeam Arava 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2