Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 1:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 20 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 10 games
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfire
Matthew · 17 games
Tiny
DarkMago · 17 games
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
Dazzle
Panda · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 403 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
364 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 301 bans
Treant Protector
240 picks · 290 bans
Snapfire
230 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
199 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:19
Keyd Stars 40%Thunder Awaken 60%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaCostabile
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Ember Spirit4dr
Monkey KingAlone
VenomancerTavo
SnapfireILICH-
MarsKingrd
TinyMichael
DisruptorKJ
RubickAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 70%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1