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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 13 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ILICH- · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
753 picks · 481 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 389 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 580 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 603 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
387 picks · 268 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
377 picks · 636 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 752 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Keyd Stars 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCostabile
65% · 52 games49% · 77 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Enigma
EnigmaTavo
52% · 180 games51% · 371 game
MarciILICH-
Marci
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4dr
61% · 128 games45% · 279 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyKingrd
53% · 631 game36% · 376 games
SnapfireMjz
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerKJ
47% · 112 games
Game 2prediction missed35:33
Keyd Stars 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
51% · 113 games50% · 57 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
51% · 239 games45% · 283 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTavo
54% · 165 games46% · 578 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Tiny
TinyKingrd
51% · 458 games53% · 182 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
51% · 125 games
Game 3prediction correct19:36
Keyd Stars 43%Thunder Awaken 57%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCostabile
49% · 110 games56% · 113 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Leshrac
Leshrac4dr
55% · 182 games45% · 204 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Broodmother
BroodmotherTavo
52% · 99 games45% · 543 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Tiny
TinyKingrd
52% · 549 games52% · 315 games
Treant ProtectorMjz
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingKJ
48% · 235 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 66%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3