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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 9 games
22%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 9 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
80%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 426 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
182 picks · 257 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 366 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 103 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 318 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 34%
Hero pool strength60% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
Keyd Stars 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
47% · 37 games53% · 100 games
SvenTimado
Sven
Zeus
Zeus4nalog
54% · 29 games51% · 103 games
Tidehunterkasane
Tidehunter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFCR
47% · 54 games46% · 14 games
Dazzlebryle-
Dazzle
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageKingrd
53% · 155 games44% · 77 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
49% · 148 games52% · 129 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed11:49
Keyd Stars 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by TSM in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCostabile
62% · 32 games42% · 16 games
Bristlebackkasane
Bristleback
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFCR
46% · 73 games40% · 12 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
47% · 44 games53% · 68 games
Rikibryle-
Riki
Clinkz
ClinkzKingrd
36% · 7 games47% · 103 games
PhoenixAri
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKJ
56% · 163 games50% · 120 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2