The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 7 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 5 games
Windranger
4nalog · 5 games
Tundra Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 28 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 18 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nine · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 410 bans
Vengeful Spirit
197 picks · 263 bans
Sven
178 picks · 254 bans
Beastmaster
172 picks · 361 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 314 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
167 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Keyd Stars 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterCostabile
Faceless VoidSkiter
VisageFCR
ClinkzTopson
Invoker4nalog
Brewmaster33
TuskKingrd
Nature's ProphetSneyking
Vengeful SpiritKJ
TinyNine
Game 2prediction correct43:18
Keyd Stars 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 51:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaCostabile
LunaSkiter
Kunkka4nalog
PangolierTopson
Primal BeastFCR
Visage33
Skywrath MageKingrd
WeaverNine
UndyingKJ
Shadow DemonSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2