Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Universitario Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Tavo · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
722 picks · 523 bans
Disruptor
589 picks · 513 bans
Doom
561 picks · 1091 bans
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1240 bans
Techies
536 picks · 591 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 935 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1057 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 657 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Keyd Stars 36%Universitario Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 33:32.
Game 2prediction missed47:19
Keyd Stars 36%Universitario Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 42:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 64%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2