ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WSWawitas Sagazeswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 10 games
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 6 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 6 games
Primal Beastsignature
4nalog · 6 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
Wawitas Sagazes
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
229 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
Phoenix
194 picks · 257 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 278 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Wawitas Sagazes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Wawitas Sagazes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Keyd Stars 39%Wawitas Sagazes 61%
The model gave 61% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverCostabile
LunaLumière
Lone DruidFCR
NecrophosDarkMago
Puck4nalog
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
EarthshakerKingrd
Treant ProtectorPanda
PugnaKJ
Game 2prediction correct5:31
Keyd Stars 39%Wawitas Sagazes 61%
The model gave 61% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerCostabile
SvenLumière
Pangolier4nalog
EarthshakerDarkMago
BrewmasterFCR
DawnbreakerOscar
PugnaKingrd
EnchantressPanda
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Game 3prediction correct24:53
Keyd Stars 38%Wawitas Sagazes 62%
The model gave 62% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 52:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCostabile
Templar AssassinLumière
Dragon KnightFCR
PangolierDarkMago
Earth Spirit4nalog
DawnbreakerOscar
PugnaKingrd
Treant ProtectorPanda
GrimstrokeKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteWawitas Sagazes · 70%
Series resultWawitas Sagazes 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3