Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NNoMarciwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
Bane
antoha · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 9 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Dodren · 8 games
NoMarci
Marssignature
Noticed · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Dodren · 6 games
Snapfire
forcemajor · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
Bane
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 349 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 387 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 589 bans
Lion
227 picks · 104 bans
Void Spirit
223 picks · 250 bans
Bane
220 picks · 145 bans
Pangolier
217 picks · 267 bans
Lina
216 picks · 460 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% NoMarci
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% NoMarci
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:3
Khan 45%NoMarci 55%
The model gave 55% on NoMarci — the game was taken by NoMarci in 13:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPikachu
Wraith KingDaxak
MarsLastHero-
MagnusNoticed
Ursalayme
PuckDodren
BaneAoharide
LionSoNNeikO
Grimstrokegoddam
Weaverforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct
Khan 42%NoMarci 58%
The model gave 58% on NoMarci — the game was taken by NoMarci.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoMarci · 58%
Series resultNoMarci 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2