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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 7 games
43%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 6 games
0%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 13 games
77%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
256 picks · 313 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
253 picks · 379 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
241 picks · 521 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 126 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
225 picks · 472 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
221 picks · 241 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 285 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
210 picks · 281 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:22
Khan 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Khan in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelayme
56% · 124 games46% · 58 games
Drow Rangerlightless
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPikachu
51% · 246 games47% · 155 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterchshrct
50% · 192 games50% · 338 games
MarsGhostik
Mars
Weaver
Weavergoddam
46% · 107 games53% · 90 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Undying
UndyingAccell
44% · 75 games53% · 103 games
Io[T]SA
Io
Game 2prediction missed31:18
Khan 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Khan in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlayme
46% · 46 games44% · 145 games
Morphlinglightless
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderPikachu
51% · 75 games50% · 85 games
Night StalkerGhostik
Night Stalker
Mars
Marschshrct
47% · 247 games54% · 219 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenixgoddam
44% · 134 games49% · 52 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernAccell
58% · 87 games56% · 88 games
Io[T]SA
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 54%
Series resultKhan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2