Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
Khanwin 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
WWITCHloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Chen
antoha · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
layme · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
WITCH
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 183 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 128 bans
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 628 bans
Puck
313 picks · 680 bans
Ancient Apparition
306 picks · 468 bans
Mars
296 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 346 bans
Lina
261 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 56%
Series resultKhan 1:0
Series predictioncorrect