PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KINGSloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CNChicken N Friendswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KINGS
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken N Friends
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
494 picks · 642 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 585 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 509 bans
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 791 bans
Magnus
412 picks · 931 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KINGS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Chicken N Friends
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:10
KINGS 23%Chicken N Friends 77%
The model gave 77% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 21:47.
Game 2prediction correct19:36
KINGS 23%Chicken N Friends 77%
The model gave 77% on Chicken N Friends — the game was taken by Chicken N Friends in 24:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken N Friends · 77%
Series resultChicken N Friends 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2