2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Китайwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Малайзияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Китай
No games played over 6 months.
Малайзия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
299 picks · 150 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 412 bans
Ember Spirit
206 picks · 273 bans
Beastmaster
191 picks · 388 bans
Skywrath Mage
184 picks · 109 bans
Dark Seer
183 picks · 348 bans
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
Vengeful Spirit
176 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Китай
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Китай
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Китай 67%Малайзия 33%
The model gave 67% on Китай — the game was taken by Малайзия.
Game 2prediction correct
Китай 67%Малайзия 33%
The model gave 67% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Game 3prediction correct
Китай 67%Малайзия 33%
The model gave 67% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Model check result
Model favoriteКитай · 67%
Series resultКитай 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3