ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 33 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 32 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Rubick
Antares · 24 games
Windranger
kiyotaka · 23 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
240 picks · 111 bans
Grimstroke
240 picks · 288 bans
Vengeful Spirit
232 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 270 bans
Treant Protector
205 picks · 440 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 420 bans
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 284 bans
Earthshaker
177 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:28
Klim Sani4 30%9Pandas 70%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 46:15.
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Klim Sani4 30%9Pandas 70%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 26:34.
Game 3prediction correct38:27
Klim Sani4 30%9Pandas 70%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 52:20.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 70%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3