European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Dendi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
275 picks · 442 bans
Muerta
239 picks · 326 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 114 bans
Phoenix
220 picks · 333 bans
Treant Protector
211 picks · 424 bans
Tusk
206 picks · 182 bans
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 272 bans
Kunkka
197 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:14
Klim Sani4 34%B8 Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:55.
Game 2prediction correct35:33
Klim Sani4 34%B8 Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 56:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 66%
Series resultKlim Sani4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2