BLAST Slam VIII. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
Winter Wyvern
Rein · 5 games
Broodmother
mangekyou · 3 games
Dark Willow
swedenstrong · 3 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
mangekyou · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
423 · 2 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 2 games
Level UP
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 19 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 19 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 16 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
481 picks · 328 bans
Bane
344 picks · 459 bans
Clockwerk
334 picks · 512 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 503 bans
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
284 picks · 313 bans
Windranger
270 picks · 193 bans
Rubick
259 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:35
Klim Sani4 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
LunaWoE
Broodmothermangekyou
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Earth SpiritSquad1x
TidehunterBb3px
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Hoodwinkqueezy
DazzleRein
MiranaHtrd
Game 2prediction correct13:40
Klim Sani4 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren423
SvenWoE
Doommangekyou
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Earth SpiritSquad1x
SlardarBb3px
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Hoodwinkqueezy
GrimstrokeRein
Winter WyvernHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2