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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Klim Sani4

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 13 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
255 picks · 369 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 385 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 201 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
210 picks · 538 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
188 picks · 439 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:31
Klim Sani4 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:23.
Game 2prediction correct31:26
Klim Sani4 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:40.
Game 3prediction correct38:25
Klim Sani4 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:34:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultKlim Sani4 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3