ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kleewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 449 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 445 bans
Lion
238 picks · 214 bans
Vengeful Spirit
232 picks · 129 bans
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 657 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
Pangolier
226 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Klim Sani4 45%Team Klee 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 35:35.
Game 2prediction correct44:31
Klim Sani4 45%Team Klee 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 1:10:51.
Game 3prediction correct25:19
Klim Sani4 45%Team Klee 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 54:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 55%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3