Kobravex Gaming vs Mouth Esports — prediction EOB2ОК · Dota 2

ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

KGKobravex Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 0:2

MEMouth Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kobravex Gaming

Lion

Krinzhik · 1 game

100%

Mouth Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

422 picks · 532 bans

51%

Clockwerk

372 picks · 365 bans

53%

Pangolier

321 picks · 439 bans

50%

Luna

311 picks · 364 bans

54%

Enchantress

300 picks · 564 bans

51%

Dark Willow

273 picks · 146 bans

50%

Dragon Knight

261 picks · 343 bans

49%

Shadow Demon

255 picks · 950 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength58% Kobravex Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% Kobravex Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct19:32

Kobravex Gaming 49%Mouth Esports 51%

The model gave 51% on Mouth Esports — the game was taken by Mouth Esports in 48:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Dark WillowKrinzhik

44% · 82 games29% · 3 games

Phantom AssassinCucahook