DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionKBKodiak Bearswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kodiak Bears
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
372 picks · 283 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 720 bans
Lion
311 picks · 143 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Kodiak Bears
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Kodiak Bears
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:6
Kodiak Bears 55%The Covenant 45%
The model gave 55% on Kodiak Bears — the game was taken by Kodiak Bears in 17:16.
Game 2prediction correct39:16
Kodiak Bears 55%The Covenant 45%
The model gave 55% on Kodiak Bears — the game was taken by Kodiak Bears in 19:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteKodiak Bears · 55%
Series resultKodiak Bears 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2