BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kopitewin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kopite
Ancient Apparition
Bombi · 2 games
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
Dragon Knight
GaN- · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Oracle
Bombi · 2 games
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Bombi · 1 game
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 751 bans
Disruptor
291 picks · 264 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
262 picks · 283 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 243 bans
Marci
253 picks · 709 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Kopite
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kopite 73%Carstensz Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Kopite — the game was taken by Kopite.
Game 2prediction correct
Kopite 73%Carstensz Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Kopite — the game was taken by Kopite.
Model check result
Model favoriteKopite · 73%
Series resultKopite 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2