Kopite vs REKONIX — prediction FP—D2ОК 2 · Dota 2

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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Kopiteloss 1:2

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 1:2

REKONIXwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kopite

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

Bombi · 2 games

Ember Spiritoften banned

GaN- · 2 games

50%

Oracle

Bombi · 2 games

50%

Puckoften banned

GaN- · 2 games

50%

Clockwerk

Bombi · 1 game

Grimstroke

Bombi · 1 game

100%

Huskaroften banned

GaN- · 1 game

Queen of Painoften banned

GaN- · 1 game

REKONIX

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

305 picks · 193 bans

49%

Puck

296 picks · 656 bans

50%

Dark Willow

263 picks · 113 bans

47%

Tusk

256 picks · 253 bans

46%

Dawnbreaker

253 picks · 605 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

249 picks · 514 bans

58%

Batrider

243 picks · 678 bans

54%

Marci

242 picks · 516 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% REKONIX

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% REKONIX

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct8:32

Kopite 44%REKONIX 56%

The model gave 56% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 25:23.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo