DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kukuys
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Ivory
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
299 picks · 748 bans
Disruptor
290 picks · 261 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
261 picks · 280 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 697 bans
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
Marci
252 picks · 703 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:18
Kukuys 65%Ivory 35%
The model gave 65% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 32:17.
Game 2prediction missed40:40
Kukuys 65%Ivory 35%
The model gave 65% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 54:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 65%
Series resultKukuys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2