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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Kukuyswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%

Ivory

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tiny
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Ken · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 268 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
482 picks · 489 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
368 picks · 1002 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
328 picks · 377 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
308 picks · 147 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 519 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
302 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
Kukuys 62%Ivory 38%
The model gave 62% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 33:28.
Game 2prediction missed15:33
Kukuys 62%Ivory 38%
The model gave 62% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 62%
Series resultKukuys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2