KW vs PuckChamp — prediction EMIP · Dota 2

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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3

result vs prediction

KKWloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

PuckChampwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KW

No games played over 6 months.

PuckChamp

Shadow Fiendoften banned

gotthejuice · 6 games

17%

Hoodwink

Gothic- · 5 games

Ringmaster

Hyugadoto · 4 games

25%

Slardaroften banned

krol9ash · 4 games

50%

Techies

Gothic- · 4 games

75%

Centaur Warrunner

krol9ash · 3 games

33%

Invokeroften banned

dualrazee · 3 games

67%

Pangolieroften banned

dualrazee · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

497 picks · 356 bans

53%

Rubick

384 picks · 234 bans

46%

Clockwerk

339 picks · 638 bans

56%

Tiny

338 picks · 346 bans

50%

Windranger

318 picks · 230 bans

49%

Pangolier

299 picks · 397 bans

52%

Bane

295 picks · 287 bans

61%

Storm Spirit

286 picks · 315 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%

Hero pool strength54% KW

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% PuckChamp

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct11:27

KW 49%PuckChamp 51%

The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:06.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo