IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Кыргызстанloss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Чехияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Кыргызстан
No games played over 6 months.
Чехия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
487 picks · 518 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 673 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 621 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 706 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 774 bans
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 329 bans
Undying
320 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:28
Кыргызстан 63%Чехия 37%
The model gave 63% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Чехия in 42:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 63%
Series resultЧехия 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1