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IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Кыргызстанloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Монголияwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Кыргызстан

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Max · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kami · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%

Монголия

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
463 picks · 228 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
442 picks · 473 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 651 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 694 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
325 picks · 764 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 516 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
302 picks · 574 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Монголия
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:30
Кыргызстан 45%Монголия 55%
The model gave 55% on Монголия — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 43:46.
Game 2prediction correct18:41
Кыргызстан 45%Монголия 55%
The model gave 55% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 50:12.
Game 3prediction correct5:32
Кыргызстан 45%Монголия 55%
The model gave 55% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 55%
Series resultМонголия 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3