Road To Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Кыргызстанwin 1:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Туркменистанloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Кыргызстан
No games played over 6 months.
Туркменистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
501 picks · 350 bans
Doom
484 picks · 1023 bans
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 887 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 975 bans
Beastmaster
395 picks · 1040 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Кыргызстан 72%Туркменистан 28%
The model gave 72% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 72%
Series resultКыргызстан 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1