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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Boomeria ja Nulikkaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 24 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%

4 Boomeria ja Nulikka

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
775 picks · 506 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 394 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 576 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 653 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 285 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 716 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 790 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:44
KZ TEAM 53%4 Boomeria ja Nulikka 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 32:18.
Game 2prediction correct11:35
KZ TEAM 53%4 Boomeria ja Nulikka 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 20:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 53%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2