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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 11 games
45%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
73%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
456 picks · 221 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 486 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 653 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 598 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 698 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
328 picks · 766 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 517 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 626 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
KZ TEAM 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
47% · 158 games55% · 184 games
Faceless VoidDaxak
Faceless Void
Wraith King
Wraith KingNande
48% · 80 games50% · 320 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkyLark
48% · 157 games52% · 270 games
DoomOwnedMe
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastdEsire
49% · 333 games47% · 226 games
Nature's Prophetswedenstrong
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderSsaSpartan
46% · 340 games59% · 68 games
LionMiLAN
Lion
Game 2prediction correct19:27
KZ TEAM 41%Level UP 59%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSkyLark
49% · 169 games46% · 54 games
GyrocopterDaxak
Gyrocopter
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNande
50% · 76 games49% · 142 games
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaW1sh-
42% · 38 games54% · 243 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
48% · 103 games52% · 57 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Marci
MarciSsaSpartan
52% · 154 games54% · 44 games
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 63%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2