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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Luna Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 12 games
50%

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 10 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 193 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 447 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 452 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
264 picks · 216 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 409 bans
55%
Morphling
Morphling
249 picks · 462 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
245 picks · 414 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
225 picks · 451 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
KZ TEAM 52%Luna Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNande
47% · 42 games54% · 73 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
50% · 319 games47% · 330 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
54% · 112 games55% · 147 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickPablo
47% · 490 games44% · 449 games
SnapfireThiolicor
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
54% · 100 games50% · 64 games
GrimstrokeKidaro
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed23:41
KZ TEAM 56%Luna Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
47% · 419 games42% · 86 games
Troll WarlordYuma
Troll Warlord
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
52% · 151 game50% · 447 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSkyLark
54% · 99 games47% · 335 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Warlock
WarlockSsaSpartan
60% · 31 game54% · 218 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickPablo
47% · 598 games52% · 212 games
Skywrath MageKidaro
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed24:30
KZ TEAM 55%Luna Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
48% · 277 games51% · 147 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
49% · 385 games46% · 153 games
SlarkYuma
Slark
Underlord
UnderlordSkyLark
51% · 138 games52% · 327 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
54% · 140 games49% · 189 games
Skywrath MageThiolicor
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePablo
52% · 41 game48% · 165 games
Treant ProtectorKidaro
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 59%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3