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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Astral · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
38%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 436 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
233 picks · 326 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 325 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
214 picks · 114 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 277 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
202 picks · 181 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 406 bans
56%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 528 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:40
KZ TEAM 61%MarsBet Team 39%
The model gave 61% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 1:13:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerOtaker
51% · 103 games54% · 64 games
Anti-MageLukas
Anti-Mage
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
54% · 334 games50% · 140 games
Dragon KnightMr. Luck
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomSkyLark
57% · 318 games35% · 59 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Lion
LionAstral
44% · 106 games49% · 310 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
51% · 333 games49% · 621 game
RubickBignum
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct39:20
KZ TEAM 58%MarsBet Team 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
50% · 168 games54% · 62 games
Anti-MageLukas
Anti-Mage
Doom
DoomSkyLark
51% · 193 games54% · 122 games
Queen of PainW1sh-
Queen of Pain
Windranger
WindrangerSupream^
48% · 95 games43% · 146 games
Dragon KnightMr. Luck
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
43% · 148 games51% · 336 games
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
47% · 198 games57% · 136 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 66%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2