?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 1:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 426 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 403 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 441 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 627 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 206 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
223 picks · 199 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 108 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 305 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
KZ TEAM 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 44:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 60%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1