Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 14 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 8 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 256 bans
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
Undying
284 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 198 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 437 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 518 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 299 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 106 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:23
KZ TEAM 14%Monaspa 86%
The model gave 86% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 25:40.
Game 2prediction correct26:39
KZ TEAM 14%Monaspa 86%
The model gave 86% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 34:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 86%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2