Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNOSTRVMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 9 games
Vipersignature
W1sh- · 9 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
NOSTRVM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 287 bans
Marci
283 picks · 529 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Undying
260 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 496 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% NOSTRVM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:9
KZ TEAM 43%NOSTRVM 57%
The model gave 57% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 20:13.
Game 2prediction missed36:11
KZ TEAM 43%NOSTRVM 57%
The model gave 57% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 25:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteNOSTRVM · 57%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2