Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NNOSTRVMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 9 games
Vipersignature
W1sh- · 9 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
NOSTRVM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
349 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 532 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 572 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 124 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% NOSTRVM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KZ TEAM 41%NOSTRVM 59%
The model gave 59% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteNOSTRVM · 59%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1