Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 13 games
Rubick
dEsire · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
Tiny
W1sh- · 11 games
One Move
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
440 picks · 209 bans
Techies
344 picks · 372 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 531 bans
Batrider
319 picks · 548 bans
Morphling
301 picks · 601 bans
Undying
293 picks · 490 bans
Timbersaw
284 picks · 679 bans
Storm Spirit
263 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:11
KZ TEAM 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNande
SvenMunkushi~
PangolierW1sh-
Dark SeerAfterLife
DawnbreakerSkyLark
TinyAinkrad
RubickMaybe Next Time
Nature's ProphetXakoda
BaneSsaSpartan
GrimstrokePanto
Game 2prediction missed50:41
KZ TEAM 44%One Move 56%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 54:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNande
Wraith KingMunkushi~
PangolierW1sh-
EarthshakerAinkrad
Primal BeastSkyLark
BrewmasterAfterLife
BatriderRESPECT
Skywrath MagePanto
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 55%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2