Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 14 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 8 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
PSG Quest
Tiny
OmaR · 17 games
Iosignature
Eixn · 10 games
Marcioften banned
OmaR · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 7 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 6 games
Zeusoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 270 bans
Marci
297 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 221 bans
Undying
273 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 465 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 524 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 312 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:23
KZ TEAM 41%PSG Quest 59%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:36.
Game 2prediction correct34:41
KZ TEAM 41%PSG Quest 59%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:03:48.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 59%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2