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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
62%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
44%

SIBE Team

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 9 games
89%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 9 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
klassnokruto · 7 games
14%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
292 picks · 142 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 412 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 262 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
184 picks · 382 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
181 picks · 340 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
177 picks · 254 bans
53%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 106 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 241 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% SIBE Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:42
KZ TEAM 46%SIBE Team 54%
The model gave 54% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFocus
63% · 39 games43% · 44 games
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerNande
50% · 54 games39% · 32 games
Brewmasterklassnokruto
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
55% · 60 games45% · 28 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
57% · 3 games45% · 28 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
53% · 24 games
Grimstrokeemptiness
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct13:28
KZ TEAM 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 21:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
50% · 106 games46% · 38 games
Naga Sirennesfeer
Naga Siren
Bristleback
BristlebackNande
37% · 14 games51% · 47 games
Brewmasterklassnokruto
Brewmaster
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
48% · 87 games55% · 97 games
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
52% · 95 games48% · 21 game
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
51% · 99 games
Skywrath Mageemptiness
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 50%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2