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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
SsaSpartan · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Astral · 16 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 18 games
28%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
354 picks · 536 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
306 picks · 225 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
305 picks · 441 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
301 picks · 265 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
268 picks · 424 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 759 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
260 picks · 225 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total69% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
KZ TEAM 60%SIBE Team 40%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSupream^
49% · 78 games50% · 106 games
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
54% · 78 games55% · 57 games
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Troll Warlord
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
49% · 29 games51% · 117 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
51% · 63 games51% · 131 game
Tinysunset
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
41% · 163 games
Game 2prediction missed16:35
KZ TEAM 58%SIBE Team 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingOtaker
46% · 177 games52% · 493 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
49% · 142 games57% · 213 games
Slarknesfeer
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
56% · 196 games42% · 231 game
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
49% · 188 games51% · 176 games
Vengeful SpiritRein
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickAstral
48% · 410 games
Game 3prediction correct32:9
KZ TEAM 63%SIBE Team 37%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidOtaker
50% · 241 game48% · 241 game
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
51% · 499 games47% · 331 game
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusSkyLark
57% · 273 games53% · 292 games
BatriderRein
Batrider
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
47% · 84 games50% · 434 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
47% · 201 game
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 69%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3