Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 14 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 8 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
Team Unity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 268 bans
Marci
304 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
279 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 524 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
KZ TEAM 53%Team Unity 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM.
Game 2prediction correct
KZ TEAM 53%Team Unity 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 53%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2