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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
RAMZES666 · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
aik · 5 games
60%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
42%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 552 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 507 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
323 picks · 254 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 612 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
308 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
293 picks · 277 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
HULIGANI 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerRAMZES666
58% · 73 games52% · 149 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritre1bl
53% · 252 games50% · 210 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
51% · 168 games46% · 140 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
41% · 164 games51% · 117 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Bane
BanePanto
47% · 42 games50% · 83 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct12:36
HULIGANI 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageRAMZES666
51% · 35 games51% · 94 games
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Naga Siren
Tiny
Tinyre1bl
50% · 190 games43% · 76 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
56% · 162 games51% · 167 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
51% · 83 games49% · 114 games
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePanto
51% · 123 games44% · 142 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2