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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
57%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 737 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
280 picks · 255 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 679 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
256 picks · 275 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 571 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 685 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:26
HULIGANI 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 59:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
54% · 83 games45% · 136 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
56% · 93 games50% · 163 games
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
59% · 134 games46% · 24 games
PudgeSSS
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
52% · 85 games48% · 155 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
50% · 243 games40% · 160 games
Snapfirekasane
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct7:43
HULIGANI 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
61% · 60 games47% · 81 game
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
47% · 295 games47% · 119 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
56% · 252 games39% · 318 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Chen
ChenRESPECT
63% · 122 games40% · 156 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
49% · 131 game50% · 186 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed39:33
HULIGANI 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:05:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marciv1olent-
46% · 134 games52% · 93 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
49% · 142 games53% · 50 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
42% · 72 games55% · 236 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
54% · 164 games53% · 165 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
43% · 135 games51% · 103 games
Banekasane
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3