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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 22 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 16 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 15 games
53%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 25 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 20 games
65%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 15 games
27%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
501 picks · 678 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 407 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 594 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
462 picks · 567 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 527 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 942 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:22
HULIGANI 59%9Pandas 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
45% · 122 games39% · 30 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
52% · 274 games50% · 376 games
TinySerenada
Tiny
Magnus
Magnusxn丶e
52% · 234 games59% · 74 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
47% · 265 games51% · 396 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRESPECT
51% · 125 games46% · 144 games
LichSolo
Lich
Game 2prediction correct35:22
HULIGANI 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
46% · 187 games51% · 259 games
MorphlingV-Tune
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
40% · 154 games48% · 250 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
46% · 249 games57% · 122 games
Enigmalaise
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
52% · 303 games51% · 374 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAntares
57% · 159 games50% · 47 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 3prediction correct16:6
HULIGANI 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
47% · 40 games51% · 58 games
LycanSerenada
Lycan
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
54% · 150 games51% · 69 games
Faceless VoidV-Tune
Faceless Void
Magnus
Magnusxn丶e
51% · 166 games46% · 84 games
Slardarlaise
Slardar
Muerta
MuertaAntares
47% · 246 games51% · 240 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
54% · 208 games46% · 359 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 65%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3