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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
RESPECT · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 12 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%

ASAKURA

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
young G · 11 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 763 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 326 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 701 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 889 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1047 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 519 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
HULIGANI 62%ASAKURA 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenv1olent-
47% · 244 games47% · 210 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
58% · 201 game50% · 267 games
Dragon KnightSerenada
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
49% · 217 games53% · 167 games
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Seer
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
56% · 26 games50% · 257 games
Rubickslimeyao
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
46% · 270 games46% · 57 games
SilencerVaniLLl
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct30:9
HULIGANI 63%ASAKURA 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
52% · 101 game50% · 155 games
Marci7jesu
Marci
Tiny
Tinyerase
52% · 322 games44% · 326 games
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
52% · 203 games67% · 5 games
Outworld DestroyerSerenada
Outworld Destroyer
Windranger
Windrangermrls
47% · 176 games47% · 249 games
Hoodwinkslimeyao
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
50% · 8 games54% · 75 games
IoVaniLLl
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2