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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 11 games
45%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
mrls · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 9 games
56%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 41 game
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 22 games
59%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 17 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 16 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 15 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
498 picks · 538 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 360 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 503 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 698 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 174 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
297 picks · 190 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 433 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:25
HULIGANI 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 59:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
43% · 311 games50% · 120 games
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
44% · 190 games55% · 215 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanMalik
59% · 74 games53% · 276 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderImmersion
47% · 363 games48% · 260 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleRESPECT
51% · 40 games54% · 107 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed13:42
HULIGANI 50%AVULUS 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
44% · 284 games52% · 201 game
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
Leshracerase
53% · 87 games47% · 285 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderMalik
47% · 269 games54% · 213 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
52% · 72 games43% · 183 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanImmersion
52% · 259 games57% · 89 games
BanedEsire
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2