HULIGANI vs Ban9PivoSamogon — prediction CIS Battle 2 · Dota 2

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CIS Battle 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

HULIGANIwin 2:0

series probability

83%17%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster

mrls · 22 games

59%

Jakiro

RESPECT · 13 games

54%

Storm Spiritoften banned

erase · 13 games

31%

Dark Seeroften banned

Malik · 12 games

50%

Puckoften banned

erase · 12 games

58%

Windranger

mrls · 12 games

58%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

v1olent- · 11 games

36%

Terrorbladeoften banned

v1olent- · 11 games

45%

Ban9PivoSamogon

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

522 picks · 550 bans

53%

Dark Willow

385 picks · 229 bans

51%

Tusk

362 picks · 415 bans

46%

Puck

337 picks · 869 bans

53%

Pangolier

327 picks · 484 bans

52%

Tiny

322 picks · 303 bans

50%

Batrider

321 picks · 902 bans

59%

Nature's Prophet

289 picks · 645 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%

Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total83% HULIGANI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct36:10

HULIGANI 70%Ban9PivoSamogon 30%

The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:39.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo