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1win Series Dota 2 Punch · BO5
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:3
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Chimera Esportswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 20 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 13 games
54%

Chimera Esports

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Daxak · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
Panto · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 629 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
463 picks · 528 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 571 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 190 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 404 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
349 picks · 262 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
335 picks · 916 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 685 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
HULIGANI 40%Chimera Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMirage
50% · 110 games42% · 73 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Magnus
Magnusv1olent-
60% · 167 games45% · 115 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Broodmother
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
56% · 90 games48% · 198 games
MorphlingLorenof
Morphling
Lion
Lionqueezy
58% · 259 games43% · 180 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Lich
LichMalady
47% · 63 games49% · 123 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct9:22
HULIGANI 38%Chimera Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMirage
48% · 117 games53% · 196 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
48% · 75 games58% · 158 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
37% · 127 games54% · 106 games
BrewmasterDaxak
Brewmaster
Lich
LichMalady
44% · 70 games58% · 86 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
50% · 367 games50% · 210 games
ClockwerkOneJey
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct8:22
HULIGANI 39%Chimera Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 25:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
47% · 144 games49% · 101 game
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
50% · 137 games47% · 192 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusMirage
53% · 134 games55% · 105 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinqueezy
60% · 80 games48% · 226 games
Shadow DemonPanto
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
49% · 262 games45% · 133 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 71%
Series resultChimera Esports 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3