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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
513 picks · 545 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
390 picks · 231 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 413 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
336 picks · 873 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 479 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 913 bans
60%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 298 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
294 picks · 633 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
HULIGANI 76%eSpoiled 24%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
59% · 178 games47% · 114 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
43% · 157 games47% · 129 games
UndyingmeLes
Undying
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
53% · 79 games50% · 384 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Warlock
Warlockaik
53% · 102 games47% · 110 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
52% · 221 game
Game 2prediction correct42:14
HULIGANI 75%eSpoiled 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
53% · 158 games44% · 86 games
Ursassnovv1
Ursa
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
45% · 42 games49% · 248 games
BeastmastermeLes
Beastmaster
Pudge
Pudgev1olent-
43% · 16 games52% · 77 games
BaneWein
Bane
Batrider
Batrideraik
55% · 183 games42% · 93 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
60% · 105 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2