DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 35 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 32 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Jakiro
Accel · 6 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Tiny
payk · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
619 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
441 picks · 483 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 205 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1036 bans
Puck
384 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
HULIGANI 70%Estar Backs 30%
The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidssnovv1
Alchemistpayk
Queen of PainMirage
JakiroYadomi
AxeCorrupted
Phoenixsayuw
TuskRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct35:18
HULIGANI 72%Estar Backs 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidssnovv1
Tinypayk
Ember SpiritMirage
ClockwerkYadomi
SlardarCorrupted
Rubicksayuw
RingmasterRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 84%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2