PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 32 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
GamerLegion
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
Tusk
Bignum · 17 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
646 picks · 731 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 481 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 396 bans
Warlock
442 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1091 bans
Phoenix
401 picks · 334 bans
Puck
385 picks · 801 bans
Mars
384 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:39
HULIGANI 50%GamerLegion 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunassnovv1
MuertaGhost
Ember SpiritMirage
Storm SpiritRCY
SlardarCorrupted
UnderlordFayde
PugnaRESPECT
PhoenixSpeeed
Dark Willowsayuw
TuskBignum
Game 2prediction missed22:13
HULIGANI 49%GamerLegion 51%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverssnovv1
Templar AssassinGhost
Sand KingMirage
BeastmasterRCY
EnchantressRESPECT
SlardarFayde
MarsCorrupted
VenomancerSpeeed
Rubicksayuw
RingmasterBignum
Game 3prediction missed12:33
HULIGANI 52%GamerLegion 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMirage
MuertaGhost
Lifestealerssnovv1
Queen of PainRCY
SlardarCorrupted
PangolierFayde
Tusksayuw
RubickBignum
EnchantressRESPECT
VenomancerSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 53%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3